Sep 282012
 

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates:

The Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today's distribution was D shaped and the shape filled in between the high volume nodes of the B shaped distribution the day before. This indicates ranging. Furthermore, the market closed on the monthly high volume node which is even more indicative of a ranging market.  The value area was narrower and inside the previous day. This is a therefore breakout mode in several dimensions.  There are reports Monday, so it may be enough volatility inducement to get a move going. The trend is down following a test of the low volume node to the upside and then failing to test higher.  However it is a weekend so sentiment has a chance to change. Be sure to watch the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube where I try to give you a bigger picture look at the market.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1436.25 look to buy at 1436.25 or 1435.50 areas.

If we open above 1440.00 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1431.50 look to sell at 1431.50 or 1435.50 areas.

If we open below 1429.00, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1431.50 and 1436.25, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1398, 1402.75, 1428.75, 1441.00 and 1453.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.   We are bullish above 1436 and bearish below it.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today's distribution was D shaped and the shape filled in between the high volume nodes of the B shaped distribution the day before. This indicates ranging. Furthermore, the market closed on the monthly high volume node which is even more indicative of a ranging market.  The value area was narrower and inside the previous day. This is a therefore breakout mode in several dimensions.  There are reports Monday, so it may be enough volatility inducement to get a move going. The trend is down following a test of the high volume node to the upside and then failing to test higher.  However it is a weekend so sentiment has a chance to change. Be sure to watch the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube where I try to give you a bigger picture look at the market.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 837.30 look to buy at 837.30 or 835.00 areas.

If we open above 839.70, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 833.70 look to sell at 833.70 or 835.00  areas.

If we open below 832.10, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 833.70 and 837.30, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 821.50, 840.90, 853.00 and 861.20  areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.  We are most bullish above 841.20 and bearish below it.

 

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

  2 Responses to “Emini Value Area Report for 10/01/2012”

  1. Hi Rob,

    A bit more nail biting today while attempting to trade alongside news events and beginning my day a bit earlier than usual, while following your VAR and noting your comments on a bullish open and while watching other world markets. Wasn’t entirely bad with the end results and I am closing out my trading early today at 10 am having accomplished a significant percentage of my daily goals..As always, thanks for your wisdom in the VAR’s and your tweets!

  2. Thanks for kind words MJ. I am also done for the day. Caught a nice pop off that report going up into the LVN on the TF- It looks like the ES overshot that goal I mentioned in the Emini Market Open video on YouTube and went all the way to the 94% target.

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