Oct 252012
 

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The Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today was technically an outside day and we formed another consolidation. This trendless sort of day can be a bit difficult to trade.  We have a D shape again today; 3rd day in a row.  We also tagged the 1398 level I have spoken about after the day session close.  This may very likely be bullish.  Either way, I suspect we are breaking out  from here.   It may be a bit pre-mature, but I now see us as somewhat bullish above 1398.  Above this I see us as bullish, below it bearish.  If we see buying out of the gate tomorrow, this will be fairly bullish.  We have reports tomorrow.  Be sure to tune in for the Emini Market Open Report on YouTube  where I try to give you a bigger (and more up to the moment) picture look at the market and associated trade plan.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1416.25 look to buy at 1416.25 or 1412.75 areas.

If we open above 1416.75 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1405.50 look to sell at 1405.50 or 1412.75 areas.

If we open below 1399.50, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1405.50 and 1416.25, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1398, 1425.25, 1351.75 and 1462 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.   We are bullish above 1435 and bearish below it.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today was technically an outside day and we formed another consolidation but with a bullish close.  We have somewhat of a D shape again today; 3rd day in a row.  Either way, I suspect we are breaking out  from here.   See the above report for the ES as they are linked.  If we see buying out of the gate tomorrow, this will be bullish.  We have reports tomorrow.  Be sure to tune in for the Emini Market Open Report on YouTube  where I try to give you a bigger (and more up to the moment) picture look at the market and associated trade plan.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 816.00 look to buy at 816.00 or 812.10 areas.

If we open above 821.00, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 810.00 look to sell at 810.00 or 812.10  areas.

If we open below 808.10, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 810.00 and 816.00, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 805.60, 831.40, 836.10, 846.90, 853.00 and 861.20  areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.  We are most bullish above 817 and bearish below it.

 

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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