Nov 212012
 

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates:

The Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today we again ranged with an upside bias as expected.   This again formed a D shaped profile with the breakout at the end of the day to higher ground.  This movement is consistent with our higher time frame projections.  D profiles are associated with breakout.  We have one more half trading day this week. Trading was very thin today (Wednesday).  We could be headed for the (1394 to) 1400 area by week's end before turning lower next week.   I see us as bullish above 1380 and bearish below it.  I have decided in observance of the holiday I will not do a Youtube Video on Friday's half day session and will pick it up Monday, reserving this time for family.  I will do the next one on Monday November 26th.  Have a wonderful holiday!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1388.75 look to buy at 1388.75 or 1388.00 areas.

If we open above 1389.75 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1385.75 look to sell at 1385.75 or 1388.00 areas.

If we open below 1383.50, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1385.75 and 1388.75, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1331.25, 1367.00, 1425.75 and 1451.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today we again ranged with an upside bias as expected.   This again formed a D shaped profile with the breakout at the end of the day to higher ground.  This movement is consistent with our higher time frame projections.  D profiles are associated with breakout.  We have one more half trading day this week. Trading was very thin today (Wednesday).    I see us as bullish above 790 and bearish below it.  I have decided in observance of the holiday I will not do a Youtube Video on Friday's half day session and will pick it up Monday, reserving this time for family.  I will do the next one on Monday November 26th.  Have a wonderful holiday!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 796.40 look to buy at 796.40 or 795.30 areas.

If we open above 797.00, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 793.30 look to sell at 793.30 or 795.30  areas.

If we open below 791.00, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 793.30 and 796.40, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 770.40, 780.00 and 816.40  areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

  2 Responses to “Emini Value Area Report for 11/23/2012”

  1. Rob: The official CME trading hours have changed
    (http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/faq-eq-hours-and-limits.pdf)
    and I am curious if you plan on modifying your own Nindicator settings
    due to this change. Thanks, Dean

  2. Hi Dean. Yes I simply updated the session per the instructions at NinjaTrader. This only impacts the start time of the Globex session. So it is good to update it: http://www.ninjatrader.com/Advisory/Advisory12.php … Wishing you a great Holiday :-)

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