Nov 282012
 

The Emini Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today we had the breakout and range expansion following multiple D days. It was a counter-trend rally day that formed a multi-modal distribution across the ranges of the D days.  Multimodal distributions are associated with continuation. However, if we do not see new buying out of the gate in the AM, I will consider today's price action as a bull trap and have a bearish bias. Our higher time frame projections suggest we may be near the high of the range with the CHVN around 1406 or so.   I continue to see us as bearish below 1406 and bullish above it.  There is a gap on the chart above the current high that closes in the 1421-1425 VPOC area. If we break higher, this is a likely target.  It is not likely by chance that FOMC members are speaking every single day this week.  There are reports in the AM.  Tune in for the Emini Market Open Report on YouTube Tomorrow.  Here I try to cover the overnight action and give thoughts about the trade action for the day.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1408.50 look to buy at 1408.50 or 1407.50 areas.

If we open above 1408.75 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1393.25 look to sell at 1393.25 or 1407.50 areas.

If we open below 1383.00, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1393.25 and 1408.50, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1355.75, 1367 and 1425 (above) areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today we had the breakout and range expansion following multiple D days. It was a counter-trend rally day that formed a multi-modal distribution across the ranges of the D days.  Multimodal distributions are associated with continuation. However, if we do not see new buying out of the gate in the AM, I will consider today's price action as a bull trap and have a bearish bias. Our higher time frame projections suggest we may be near the high of the range with the CHVN around 1406 or so.   I continue to see us as bearish below 810.90 and bullish above it.  There is a gap on the chart above the current high that closes in the 822-823.5 VPOC area. If we break higher, this is a likely target.  It is not likely by chance that FOMC members are speaking every single day this week. There are reports in the AM.  Tune in for the Emini Market Open Report on YouTube Tomorrow.  Here I try to cover the overnight action and give thoughts about the trade action for the day.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 810.30 look to buy at 810.30 or 803.10 areas.

If we open above 813.60, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 801.00 look to sell at 801.00 or 803.10  areas.

If we open below 796.20, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 801.00 and 810.30, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 770.40, 780.00, 789.80, 794.20, 816.40, 819.20   and 823.50 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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