Dec 312012
 

The Emini Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Happy New Year! Today's profile is multi-modal and is associated with continuation following a strong upward movement today that was mostly news / event driven.   We are currently bullish above 1406 and bearish below it.  Be advised trading mood can change around such calendar events like new year and following holidays etc. I have written about this at various times on the blog, so you can search there for more on that topic. We have some reports on Wednesday when we return from holiday. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1417.75 look to buy at 1417.75 or 1401.00 areas.

If we open above 1425.75 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1398.00 look to sell at 1398.00 or 1401.00 areas.

If we open below 1392.25, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1398.00 and 1417.75, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1367,  1433.00 and 1451.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Happy New Year! Today's profile is multi-modal and is associated with continuation following a strong upward movement today that was mostly news / event driven.   We are currently bullish above 836 and bearish below it.  Be advised trading mood can change around such calendar events like new year and following holidays etc. I have written about this at various times on the blog, so you can search there for more on that topic. We have some reports on Wednesday when we return from holiday. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 850.30 look to buy at 850.30 or 847.10 areas.

If we open above 850.50, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 837.40 look to sell at 837.40 or 847.10  areas.

If we open below 827.60, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 837.40 and 850.30, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 821.10 and 861.20 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

 

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Commodity Futures Trading and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.