Dec 192012
 

NOTE: There is an important webinar tomorrow on very important Auction Principals that will change the way you think about markets. I have had the opportunity to review this webinar in advance of its release and highly recommend it. Click here for more information.

The Emini Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today's profile is again B shaped as we push lower following a test of the low volume node at 1444.  B shapes are associated with continuation and this week is holiday ending.  Volume accumulation was negative today more or less throughout the day and we closed below value. This is bearish.  We are currently bullish above the 1431 however, so price action in the AM will tell us a lot.   We have a lot of reports tomorrow.   Tune in for the Emini Market Open Report on YouTube where I try to cover the overnight action and give thoughts about the trade action for the day.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1442.00 look to buy at 1442.00 or 1440.00 areas.

If we open above 1444.25 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1435.75 look to sell at 1435.75 or 1440.00 areas.

If we open below 1431.00, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1435.75 and 1442.00, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1367,  1409.50, 1414.25, 1417.75 and 1451.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today's profile is D shaped.  We sold off following a test of the low volume node at 850 but closed at value.   D shapes are associated with breakout.  This makes us somewhat neutral but we are bullish above 835.   Tomorrow's opening price action will tell us a lot about the likely direction from here. We have a lot of reports tomorrow.   Tune in for the Emini Market Open Report on YouTube where I try to cover the overnight action and give thoughts about the trade action for the day.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 848.50 look to buy at 848.50 or 846.00 areas.

If we open above 850.30, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 844.00 look to sell at 844.00 or 846.00  areas.

If we open below 842.20, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 844.00 and 848.50, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 809.10,  821.10, 828.60, 835.30 and 853.00 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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