Dec 262012
 

The Emini Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today's profile is b shaped on low volume as we might expect in this holiday market. The b shape is associated with retracement.  We closed in the value area indicating the downward bias for today is a bit weak.  This is bullish.  A bit of selling following the Christmas holiday is not unlikely especially since retail sales for the holiday were weak.   We are currently bearish below 1421 and bullish above it.  We have reports tomorrow.   I will re-commence doing the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube in the new year.  Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1417.75 look to buy at 1417.75 or 1415.00 areas.

If we open above 1424.50 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1412.50 look to sell at 1412.50 or 1415.00 areas.

If we open below 1410.75, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1412.50 and 1417.75, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1367,  1409.50, 1414.25, 1417.75 and 1451.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today's profile is b shaped on low volume as we might expect in this holiday market. The b shape is associated with retracement.  We closed below the value area indicating the downward bias for today is stronger.  This makes for a mixed picture in this market.  A bit of selling following the Christmas holiday is not unlikely especially since retail sales for the holiday were weak.   We are currently bearish below 842 and bullish above it.  We have reports tomorrow.   I will re-commence doing the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube in the new year.  Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 839.50 look to buy at 839.50 or 837.50 areas.

If we open above 844.70, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 835.60 look to sell at 835.60 or 837.50  areas.

If we open below 834.50, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 835.60 and 839.50, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 809.10,  821.10, 828.60 and 861.20 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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