Dec 272012
 

The Emini Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today's profile is multi-modal B shaped on fairly normal volume  in this holiday market. The B shape is associated with continuation and the day closed in an upward rally that closed at the upper end of the value area. This also occurred following a test of the December low (something all traders should have noticed).  This is bullish.  We are currently bullish above 1406 and bearish below it.  We have reports tomorrow.   I will re-commence doing the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube in the new year.  Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1410.50 look to buy at 1410.50 or 1405.00 areas.

If we open above 1418.50 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1396.50 look to sell at 1396.50 or 1405.00 areas.

If we open below 1396.00, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1396.50 and 1410.50, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1367,  1433.00 and 1451.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today's profile is multi-modal B shaped on fairly normal volume  in this holiday market. The B shape is associated with continuation and the day closed in an upward rally that closed at the upper end of the value area. This also occurred following a test of the December low (something all traders should have noticed).  This is bullish.  We are currently bullish above 836 and bearish below it.  We have reports tomorrow.   I will re-commence doing the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube in the new year.  Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 838.40 look to buy at 838.40 or 830.00 areas.

If we open above 838.60, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 829.10 look to sell at 829.10 or 830.00  areas.

If we open below 824.40, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 829.10 and 838.40, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 821.10, 850.4 and 861.20 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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