Dec 282012
 

Note: In observance of the holiday and due to the shortened trading week, I will not be doing The Coming Week article this week.

The Emini Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today's profile is P shaped profile so we got the continuation we were looking for today.  The P shape is associated with retracement. However we did close substantially below value as it becomes clear that the US government has no intention of regulating its own absurd behavior.  We are currently bullish above 1406 and bearish below it.  We have no reports Monday.   I will re-commence doing the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube in the new year.  Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1409.25 look to buy at 1409.25 or 1404.50 areas.

If we open above 1411.25 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1399.25 look to sell at 1399.25 or 1404.50 areas.

If we open below 1382.25, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1399.25 and 1409.25, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1367,  1433.00 and 1451.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today's profile is P shaped profile so we got the continuation we were looking for today.  The P shape is associated with retracement. However we did close substantially below value as it becomes clear that the US government has no intention of regulating its own absurd behavior.  We are currently bullish above 836 and bearish below it.  We have no reports Monday.   I will re-commence doing the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube in the new year.  Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 836.70 look to buy at 836.70 or 834.40 areas.

If we open above 837.70, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 831.00 look to sell at 831.00 or 834.40  areas.

If we open below 823.40, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 831.00 and 836.70, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 821.10, 850.4 and 861.20 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

  2 Responses to “Emini Value Area Report for 12/31/12”

  1. Hello Rob,

    During the past year, your work with Nindicator toolset and
    continued guidance via various channels (the blog, YouTube to name a few), has
    been of tremendous help to me personally, and I am hoping this opinion is
    echoed by a host of other traders who follow your work and guidance. Thank you!
    I want to take this opportunity on behalf of everyone who follows you here and
    on Twitter – to wish you and your family a Very Happy and Prosperous New Year
    and Seasons Greetings!

    MJ

  2. Hi MJ- Thanks very much for kind words!! I greatly appreciate it!. I also wish you and your family and all Nindicator users and blog followers and awesome and prosperous new year! Rob

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