Jan 232013
 

The Emini Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates.

 

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today's profile was D shaped and had an upside bias due to testing new highs again. As mentioned, the bias will likely remain this way unless there is a catalyst opposing the larger scale momentum.  This is bullish.  We are bullish above 1486.75 and bearish below it.  Trading in markets at or near new highs can be quite different from markets in congestion.  We have some reports tomorrow that could move the market.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1489.50 look to buy at 1489.50 or 1487.25 areas.

If we open above 1491.00 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1486.00 look to sell at 1486.00 or 1487.25 areas.

If we open below 1484.50, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1486.00 and 1489.50, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1455, 1466.75, 1473.50 and 1479  areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today's profile was D shaped and was an inside and lackluster neutral day.  This is neutral to mildly bullish.  We are bullish above 895 and bearish below it.  Trading in markets at or near new highs can be quite different from markets in congestion.  We have some reports tomorrow that could move the market.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 896.80 look to buy at 896.80 or 895.70 areas.

If we open above 897.50, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 894.90 look to sell at 894.90 or 895.70  areas.

If we open below 893.60, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 894.90 and 896.80, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 870.90, 876.10, 879.80 and 887 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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