Jan 282013
 

The SP Emini Value Area Report and TF Russell Value Area Report are a daily trading plans based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the Emini S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates.

 

For the ES Emini SP Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today's profile was again D shaped and was additionally an inside day.  An attempt was made to go to new highs off the open and it failed. This is a bit bearish.  As mentioned, the overall bullish bias will likely remain this way unless there is a catalyst opposing the larger scale momentum due to a busy report schedule this week, we may see some signs of turning this week; use caution.   We are bullish above 1496 and bearish below it and cycling below this level could result in more selling.  Trading in markets at or near new highs can be quite different from markets in congestion.  We have a report tomorrow after the market open and this is an FOMC week.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1498.25 look to buy at 1498.25 or 1496.00 areas.

If we open above 1499.25 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1494.25 look to sell at 1494.25 or 1496.00 areas.

If we open below 1490.75, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1494.25 and 1498.25, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1455, 1466.75, 1473.50 and 1479  areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the TF Russell Futures:

Today's profile was P shaped with a test of new highs late in the day and closing near value.  This is neutral to bullish.  As mentioned, the overall bullish bias will likely remain this way unless there is a catalyst opposing the larger scale momentum due to a busy report schedule this week, we may see some signs of turning this week; use caution.   We are bullish above 902 and bearish below it and cycling below this level could result in more selling.  Trading in markets at or near new highs can be quite different from markets in congestion.  We have a report tomorrow after the market open and this is an FOMC week.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 903.00 look to buy at 903.00 or 900.80 areas.

If we open above 904.70, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 900.40 look to sell at 900.40 or 900.80  areas.

If we open below 897.70, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 900.40 and 903.00, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 870.90, 876.10, 879.80 and 887 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

 Leave a Reply

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>


7 + = fifteen

Commodity Futures Trading and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.