Feb 232013
 

The SP ES Emini Value Area Report and TF Russell Value Area Report are a day trader, day trading plan based on Auction Market Theory and Market Profile techniques for Emini trading of the S&P 500 Futures and Russell Emini Futures markets.

Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach in their futures trading. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it as it is part of a complete trading education. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.

I also advise reading the outlook for both markets as they are related markets. Knowing both markets can improve your intraday trading by helping you to know when there are important day trading signals. Differences between them can also provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis. These tools enable me to plan out day trading techniques using,  in particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

 

For the ES Emini SP Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today we probed upward forming somewhat of a multimodal distribution. This formation is associated with continuation and we closed near the highs of the day which is bullish.  The market is bearish below 1513 and we have pierced back through that going higher. I did expect some cycling higher at that low, for those of you who follow the EminiForecaster reports, but for our purposes here, we are now back in bullish territory as of the close today.     There are no significant reports on Monday so assuming a quiet weekend, consolidation and / or trend continuation may be expected.

 

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1510.75 look to buy at 1510.75 or 1505.75 areas.

If we open above 1515.00 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1504.50 look to sell at 1504.50 or 1505.75 areas.

If we open below 1503.25, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1504.50 and 1510.75, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1479, 1494.25, 1500 and 1521.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the TF Russell Futures:

Today we probed upward forming somewhat of a multimodal distribution. This formation is associated with continuation and we closed near the highs of the day which is bullish.  The market is bearish below 910 and we have pierced back through that going higher.  So, we are now back in bullish territory as of the close today.     There are no significant reports on Monday so assuming a quiet weekend, consolidation and / or trend continuation may be expected.

 

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 912.70 look to buy at 912.70 or 910.20 areas.

If we open above 915.70, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 909.30 look to sell at 909.30 or 910.20  areas.

If we open below 908.50, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 909.30 and 912.70, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 887, 904 and 925.80 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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Commodity Futures Trading and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.