Mar 252013
 

The SP ES Emini Value Area Report and TF Russell Value Area Report are a day trader, day trading plan based on Auction Market Theory and Market Profile techniques for Emini trading of the S&P 500 Futures and Russell Emini Futures markets.

Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach in their futures trading. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it as it is part of a complete trading education. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.

I also advise reading the outlook for both markets as they are related markets. Knowing both markets can improve your intraday trading by helping you to know when there are important day trading signals. Differences between them can also provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis. These tools enable me to plan out day trading techniques using,  in particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

 

For the ES Emini SP Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today we gaped up and traded lower forming a b shaped pattern.  This sort of pattern is typically associated with retracement, but use caution as we are close to testing all time highs in the S&P. This sell-off may be front running off the resistance high in the cash market. The market continues to cluster around our key pivot of 1549.50 which is neutral. We have pre and post open reports tomorrow. Know your times.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1549.25 look to buy at 1549.25 or 1547.00 areas.

If we open above 1558.50 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1541.75 look to sell at 1541.75 or 1547.00 areas.

If we open below 1539.00, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1541.75 and 1549.25, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1479, 1492.75 and 1516.50  areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the TF Russell Futures:

Today we gaped up and traded lower forming a b shaped pattern.  This sort of pattern is typically associated with retracement, but use caution as we are close to testing all time highs in the S&P. This sell-off may be front running off the resistance high in the cash (S&P) market. The market continues to cluster around our key pivot of 942.80 which is neutral. We have pre and post open reports tomorrow. Know your times.

 

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 945.10 look to buy at 945.10 or 941.10 areas.

If we open above 951.30, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 938.80 look to sell at 938.80 or 941.10  areas.

If we open below 936.60, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 938.80 and 945.10, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 887, 913 and 928.20 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

Commodity Futures Trading and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.