Mar 052013
 

Please Note we have rolled to the June Contract.

The S&P 500 Emini Value Area Report and TF Russell Value Area Report are a day trader, day trading plan based on Auction Market Theory and Market Profile techniques for Emini trading of the S&P 500 Futures and Russell Emini Futures markets.

Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach in their futures trading. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it as it is part of a complete trading education. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.

I also advise reading the outlook for both markets as they are related markets. Knowing both markets can improve your intraday trading by helping you to know when there are important day trading signals. Differences between them can also provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis. These tools enable me to plan out day trading techniques using,  in particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

 

For the ES Emini SP Futures:

Overall Outlook:

As mentioned yesterday, we expected more upside. Today we pushed higher and, in the ES into new high territory and formed a D type distribution. This is indicative of a breakout mode. When we open below value following a run like this, it can indeed be bearish so use caution.  We now see the market as bullish above 1530 and bearish below. We closed in neutral territory and this is also indicative of breakout. We have reports tomorrow. Know your times.

 

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1540.75 look to buy at 1540.75 or 1540.25 areas.

If we open above 1542.75 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1536.75 look to sell at 1536.75 or 1540.25 areas.

If we open below 1532.00, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1536.75 and 1540.75, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1473.50, 1479, 1492.75 and 1516.50 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.

 

For the TF Russell Futures:

As mentioned yesterday, we expected more upside. Today we pushed higher and formed a D type distribution. This is indicative of a breakout mode. When we open below value following a run like this, it can indeed be bearish so use caution.  We now see the market as bullish above 922 and bearish below. We closed in neutral territory and this is also indicative of breakout. We have reports tomorrow. Know your times.

 

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 927.20 look to buy at 927.20 or 925.70 areas.

If we open above 928.50, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 924.50 look to sell at 924.50 or 925.70  areas.

If we open below 920.90, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 924.50 and 927.20, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 887, 925.80 and 913 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these regions.

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Glossary: 1) VAH – value area high,  2) VAL – value area low,  3) POC – point of control, 4) HVN – high volume node,  5) LVN – low volume node, 6) VPOC - virgin point of  control,  7) A letter "C" in front of 1-5 above constitutes the same for a composite profile. Composite profiles are profiles composed of more than one day of data.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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