Sep 272012
 

Note: Be sure to sign up for the Nindicator YouTube Channel for commentary on overnight price action, set-ups and educational information on Auction Theory and Analysis. You should also follow the Twitter feed at @MarketTraderRob where you will get intraday updates:

The Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today was a B shaped distribution that was higher and wider than the day before.  This is indicative of continuation.  However, be aware in the larger context we have come up into the low volume node on the composite and saw rejection at that level.   The market went though the 1436 level strongly and this is bullish.  We have reports in the AM, so the action should be interpreted in terms of the report times and results etc.   If we see buying in the AM through the low volume node area, it will be bullish. Be sure to watch the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube where I try to give you a bigger picture look at the market.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1444.25 look to buy at 1444.25 or 1441.00 areas.

If we open above 1444.50 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1432.75 look to sell at 1432.75 or 1441.00 areas.

If we open below 1429.75, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1432.75 and 1444.25, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1398, 1402.75, 1428.75, and 1453.75 areas.  Watch for potential reversals in these areas.   We are bullish above 1436 and bearish below it.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today was a B shaped distribution that was higher and wider than the day before.  This is indicative of continuation.  However, be aware in the larger context we have come up into the high volume node on the composite and saw rejection at that level.   The market came up to the 842 high volume level and met resistance there.  We have reports in the AM, so the action should be interpreted in terms of the report times and results etc.   If we see buying in the AM through the high volume node area, it will be bullish. Be sure to watch the Emini Market Open Reports on YouTube where I try to give you a bigger picture look at the market.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 839.50 look to buy at 839.50 or 832.60 areas.

If we open above 843.10, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 830.20 look to sell at 830.20 or 832.60  areas.

If we open below 830.10, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 830.20 and 839.50, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 821.50, 853.00 and 861.20  areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.  We are most bullish above 841.20 and bearish below it.

 

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

  2 Responses to “Emini Value Area Report for 9/29/2012”

  1. Hi Rob,

    I wanted to share
    this with you via your blog.

    Yesterday, Friday
    9/28/12, I decided to test a strategy after listening to your YouTube Market
    Open Report and awaiting your S&R target tweet at market open. I waited for
    the market to go a significant ways toward one of your target levels – (in
    today’s case the support level), so as to confirm the trend all the while
    making note of your 94% probability reading. I netted a good $ 600+ gain trading
    a 10-lot on the ES, and then went about my business day till almost ½ hour
    before market close to find an opportunity and add a bit to the gains from the
    morning. The results are pasted below:

    DATE

    TIME

    TYPE

    REF #

    DESCRIPTION

    COMMISSIONS

    AMOUNT

    9/28/2012

    9:54:14

    TRD

    448540121

    SOLD -1 /ESZ2 @1430.75

    -2

    9/28/2012

    9:54:14

    TRD

    448540121

    SOLD -9 /ESZ2 @1430.75

    -18

    9/28/2012

    10:28:02

    TRD

    448542047

    BOT +10 /ESZ2 @1429.50

    -20

    625

    9/28/2012

    15:42:44

    TRD

    448829894

    BOT +10 /ESZ2 @1432.75

    -20

    9/28/2012

    15:43:55

    TRD

    448831456

    SOLD -10 /ESZ2 @1433.25 CME

    -20

    250

    9/28/2012

    15:46:10

    TRD

    448832590

    SOLD -3 /ESZ2 @1435.25

    -6

    9/28/2012

    15:46:10

    TRD

    448832590

    SOLD -2 /ESZ2 @1435.25

    -4

    9/28/2012

    15:48:15

    TRD

    448836131

    SOLD -2 /ESZ2 @1437.25 CME

    -4

    9/28/2012

    15:49:56

    TRD

    448838129

    BOT +2 /ESZ2 @1436.00

    -4

    -75

    9/28/2012

    15:55:15

    TRD

    448840091

    BOT +4 /ESZ2 @1435.00

    -8

    150

    9/28/2012

    15:55:15

    TRD

    448840091

    BOT +1 /ESZ2 @1435.00

    -2

    112.5

    TOTAL

    ($108.00)

    $1,062.50

    Net

    $954.50

  2. WOW! Thanks for sharing that! You know MJ, you have shared a lot of your trading results with me and you are a very good, disciplined and consistent trader. I appreciate your sharing that the tools I have made available help in your trading. Thanks again for sharing!

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