Oct 262012

Well I could not have asked for a much better week of forecasting than last week. We hit our minimum targets and were able to call the 1398 level in the daily updates (if you follow those).  I am expecting some upside next week.  It is likely we will get some good movement as the ranges have contracted the last four days in an almost eerie consolidation at the 1398 to 1407 area.

As it stands right now, I am a bit nervous we did not rally (and stay higher) off the 1398 low more strongly.  If we break lower from here is could be fairly ugly.  But, I am an optimist, so I am thinking up.  We are going into an election in just over a week and have a full report schedule next week with reports from Monday through Friday.

Speaking of next weeks. I am going to be traveling, so cannot promise The Coming Week for the next week (the one that would be published on November 9th).

Let's take a look at the Nindicator Value Profile to see how the volume profile stacks up for the week:

Nindicator Value Profiles

Nindicator Value Profiles

As you can see,  we touched the 1398 level (red line) on the Composite chart (on right).  We rallied off that low today.  This, of course is bullish and is as I predicted.  So, for next week I will predict minimum targets of 1362 to the downside and 1445.50 to the upside.

By the way, these numbers I use for the weekly targets are similar in nature to the Nindicator Daily targets. However, the Nindicator Daily Targets work at the 77% or 94% probability levels, this is a little lower; somewhere in the 70% area.  I am able to make higher probability predictions in shorter time frames than the weekly. If you are unfamiliar, the Daily Targets are available on my Twitter feed: @MarektTraderRob.

The range of the minimum target prediction this week is a grand whopping 83 points (that would be nice for us intraday traders :-).  I don't really think we can do that-  BUT, it is not entirely unlikely following four days of price consolidation (a mega breakout mode).  Let's look at the 5 day composite:

5 Day Nindicator Composite Profile

5 Day Nindicator Composite Profile

As you can see, we have a pretty substantial volume clustering in the bottom end of that profile.  This sort of b shaping, as you know if you follow my work, is likely to break up into the higher part of the distribution.  This is the theory anyway, and theories are made to be broken :-)

So let's see how that 85 point range stacks up with the past in the Nindicator Cycle Charts:

Nindicator Weekly and Monthly Cycle Charts

Nindicator Weekly and Monthly Cycle Charts

It looks like the weekly range (right hand chart) has continued to uptick. This is of course bearish.  Note also how the week had higher volume than the last couple weeks. This increase in range for last week was predicted using this same theory.  If we look at the daily Cycle chart, we can see the decrease in range.  You will also note the daily cycles are turning up, while the weekly is down  (The Monthly remains for us to evaluate next week).  Lets look at the Daily Cycle below:

Nindicator Daily Cycle Chart

Nindicator Daily Cycle Chart

Here we can see the market may be bottoming as all three cycles are bottoming. The Nindicator Momentum has already turned up and the Volume was a bit above average today.  This likely indicates a repositioning on a day where the net volume was positive (hmmm, a down day with positive volume? How very interesting).  We can also see the daily average range ticking down. This is reflecting the multi-day consolidation we were seeing in the 5 day Composite chart.

This week I focused on trading and assisting Nindicator users with their tools and trading.  This has been a lot of fun. I absolutely love trading Crude oil.   I think there is more opportunity in this market than other markets because of the way it moves.  The commissions are higher than other markets however, so you have to be a bit careful about that.   I also did some trading in the TF Russell futures today following the report.

I was going to do another video in this market today, but decided against it.  It was the exact same set up and trade to the daily target as yesterday (except in Crude Oil.  So, if you want to learn something (that is repeatable), look at the trading video here and then analyze today's price action in the TF Russell futures using the same thinking.

For stock index trading this market ($TF_F) has better trend persistency and overshoot that can benefit intraday traders better than super high volume markets like the ES emini S&P futures.  The ES is great for swing trading, and even intraday trading, but if you are an impatient intraday trader like me, you might find you like the Russell more for stock index trading.

This last week I have made a number of trading videos illuminating some of the Nindicator tools from requests of users.  These videos are by far some of the more popular ones. Also, I wrote a couple of articles this week on essentially money management. Peruse the blog for these articles if you missed them.  The thinking behind these articles is key to understanding the big picture that can help you to be a successful trader not just right now in this moment, but in the long term.

I still recommend trading in the near term more than the longer term. Be sure to follow the Daily Trading Plan I put out in the Emini Value Area Reports each day on the blog.  I then follow these up with an Emini market open report.  The people who follow these know their worth. You should check them out.  Between those two sources and this weekly article you can have a good sense of what the market is up to.

I had some really nice comments come in this week from Nindicator users and blog followers:

  • Wow! That article you wrote blew my mind, mainly because I can testify that everything everything you wrote, I have personally experienced, or emulated myself. I cannot thank you enough for the wisdom you have shared. It has NOT fallen on deaf ears.  KC
  • This information is helpful - you are truly amazing - MJ
  • What an incredible manual you've provided with your nindicator tools!  slow digestion, but very interesting and enlightening.  BL

Be sure to keep an eye on the report schedule next week, as mentioned, it is a full schedule.

Well, that is what I have for you this week.

I wish you the very best in your trading in The Coming Week.

Thanks for supporting the blog.





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+ 3 = twelve

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