In recent days, I have been covering the weekly anticipated price action in the Emini Market Open Reports on the Nindicator YouTube Channel and through the Emini Value Area Reports on this blog. This was done because I did not publish this article last week due to the Thankgiving Holiday in the USA.
Last week we saw the market head lower for the first couple days. I was really anticipating a decline into the Wednesday PM / Thursday AM area, but this turn came early. When bear turns come early on declining range, it is often bullish, and that is what we are seeing. Let's take a look at the Value profile charts:
As you can see above, we are above the Composite High Volume Node and are trying to push higher. The lighter area on the right of the right hand profile is showing the action for the last 5 days. As you can see, this is a Bi-Modal shape that is indicative of continuation inside a bigger rally. We are currently at or near the Composite Low Volume area at about 1418 or so. I expect we will try to push through this early next week in an effort to test the higher High Volume area in the 1424 to 1427 area. Following this, I expect us to try to push lower for a few days. This will likely occur fairly early in the week. Monday or Tuesday I suspect.
On the left hand chart, we can see that Friday was an inside day. after clustering the day before. This is a strong breakout mode. So, we will want to see buying pretty much out of the gate Monday in order to confirm the upward continuation. Otherwise, selling will be in order that very well may be the commencement of a multi day downturn. It will be possible to interpret this to some extent by watching the results of the reports Monday morning.
Next Week is a fairly busy report schedule. As always, I will cover these in the various daily reports I do for you (mentioned in the beginning of this article).
Next week my projections are showing an upside target of 1452 and to the downside, I am seeing 1377 however, in the face of declining volatility, I am doubting this will manifest; I am thinking more like 1427 to the upside and maybe 1378 to the downside. But even this downside target may be optimistic. Let's take a look at the cycle charts to see the volatility picture:
You can see on the Weekly chart that the cycle has bottomed biased upwards. The Nindicator MACD, Momentum and Stochastic all show this as all three have turned upwards. At the same time, we are seeing the Avg-Med Range starting to show a bit or roll over in its top. This, as I have mentioned may be bullish. I have mentioned many times before in this article and other places on the blog that this season often brings with it a seasonal upside bias. Often called the Santa-Claus rally.
We are finishing the Month today, so the Monthly chart is more relevant than usual. We can see a Month that is basically neutral in terms of price, but that is showing signs of turn over to the downside in the three Nindicator Oscillator tools. Recent volume on both charts is fairly average and this is healthy for the market.
We finished an election this month. This will no doubt bring with it a rolling out of some leading industries and the bringing in of new ones. Less so that if there was an administration change. This may be part of the recent volatility build up and decline. This can be seen most clearly on a daily cycle chart. Let's take a look:
You can very clearly see the build up of Avg-Med Range into the election (Nov 5th) and decline afterwards. This, as mentioned is bullish. You can also see here that the daily cycles are topping. This is consistent with my near term downside hypothesis above.
If we do indeed go into a longer term rally, shifting into slightly longer term trading may be prudent (when compared to intraday trading). Use caution in contracting ranges. This means you would scalp, or swing, but not intraday trend trade. It is worth thinking about :-)
I would like to welcome aboard all the the new Nindicator Users! I will be dong a webinar towards the end of next week for Nindicator Total package users to "kickstart" learning to pattern trade with the Nindicator Pattern Tools. If you missed the webinar and would like to take advantage of this opportunity to learn advanced pattern trading concepts, then I will extend the offer into Monday before noon. I cannot extend it beyond this as you need time to study the manual before the webinar to get the most out of it. This is a great webinar for traders of all levels and interests who want to learn to read charts like a book. I suggest you take a look at the following: Here is an article I recently wrote on Pattern Trading. Also see the Pattern Trading Video Here.
Well, that is what I have for you this week.
I wish you the very best in your trading in The Coming Week.