Jun 262012
 

The Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today we again closed in value with a D distribution that is wider but a bit higher than the previous day.   This is neutral and is likely associated with breakout.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1317.25 look to buy at 1317.25 or 1313.75 areas.

If we open above 1318.00 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1308.75 look to sell at 1308.75 or 1313.75 areas.

If we open below 1303.25, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1308.75 and 1317.25, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1324, 1357.75 (that we narrowly missed a couple days ago) and 1283 area. Watch for potential reversals at these areas.   We have returned to the region below the composite HVN. Trading below this area is bearish.

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today we again closed in value with a D distribution that is wider but a bit higher than the previous day.   This is neutral and is likely associated with breakout.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 763.60 look to buy at 763.60 or 761.00 areas.

If we open above 764.90, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 757.10 look to sell at 757.10 or 761.00  areas.

If we open below 753.20, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 757.10 and 763.60, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 766.10 and 788.70 areas. Watch for turns in this area. We have returned to the region below the composite HVN. Trading below this area is bearish.

 

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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+ 9 = thirteen

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