Jun 222012
 

The Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today we closed in value with a multimodal B distribution that is narrower and slightly lower than the previous day.  This is mixed bearish and is likely associated with continuation.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1327.50 look to buy at 1327.50 or 1323.50 areas.

If we open above 1331.75 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1322.00 look to sell at 1322.00 or 1323.50 areas.

If we open below 1320.50, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1322.00 and 1327.50, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1357.75 (that we narrowly missed a couple days ago) and 1283 area. Watch for potential reversals at these areas.   The intermediate term HVN for this market is 1314-1315. It is likely we will seek this area which is only a few points away.  This is a return to a balance area.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today we closed in value with a multimodal B distribution that is narrower and inside the previous day. The high of the day was yesterdays VAH.  This is mixed bearish and is likely associated with continuation.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 769.20 look to buy at 769.20 or 766.20 areas.

If we open above 772.70, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 762.60 look to sell at 762.60 or 766.20  areas.

If we open below 761.50, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 762.60 and 769.20, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 788.70 and 755.40 areas. Watch for turns in this area. We have returned to the region of the composite HVN. This indicates potential balance.  We rallied today on negative volume in this market.

 

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

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+ six = 15

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