Aug 292012
 

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The Value Area Report is a daily trading plan based on Auction Market Theory, Market and Volume Profiling techniques for the S&P and Russell Emini Futures (the values in these reports can easily be adapted for SPY [*10] and SPX markets [small premium adjustment]).   Even if you do not use this type of analysis, you should know about it, because large numbers of very well capitalized traders use this approach. As a result, it is likely in your best interest to know and understand it. I have written about these techniques here: http://markettradersjournal.com/volume-profile-analysis/ and elsewhere in this blog.  I also advise reading the notes for both markets as they are related markets. Differences between them can provide clues to what is really going on (though I do not cover cross market analysis in this report). The report is for use on the date posted above based on profile numbers from the trading day before.  I use the NinjaTrader platform with a set of tools called Nindicators to do this analysis.  In particular, the Nindicator Value Profile tool.

For the Emini S&P (ES) Futures:

Overall Outlook:

Today's distribution was D shaped with the POC in the center  of the range. We basically traded inside yesterday's range all day today so are in a strong breakout mode.   There are reports tomorrow that may very well take us from this congestion / breakout mode.  Use caution in the absence of conviction.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 1410.75 look to buy at 1410.75 or 1409.00 areas.

If we open above 1412.50 then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 1407.25 look to sell at 1407.25 or 1409.00 areas.

If we open below 1404.75, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 1407.25 and 1410.75, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 1387.50 and 1422.50 levels.  Watch for potential reversals at these areas.   We are bullish above 1397 and bearish below it.  We are at the top of the multi year range in this market and have rallied on fairly low volume.

 

For the Emini Russell (TF) Futures:

Today's distribution was somewhat multimodal.  This suggests continuation of the bull trend we are seeing in this market.  The value area is higher and wider.  This is also bullish but we did sell off intot he close indicating weakness. There are reports tomorrow that may influence this market. For now I consider it neutral to bullish.

Bull Scenarios:

If we open above 817.20 look to buy at 817.20 or 816.40 areas.

If we open above 819.50, then this is even more bullish and may cause a runner to the upside started by stops being hit.

Bear Scenarios:

If we open below 812.40 look to sell at 812.40 or 816.40  areas.

If we open below 811.10, then this is even more bearish and may cause a runner to the downside started by stops being hit.

Neutral Start Scenario:

If we open between, 812.40 and 817.20, then ranging is more likely.

Always be cautious of the impact of reports that come after the open of the day.

Special Observations:

Notes:  There is a virgin point of control at the 764.60, 821.40, 827.20, and 835.30 areas.  Watch for reversals in these regions.  We are most bullish above 793.00 and bearish below it.

 

Remember to check the Open Report on the Nindicator YouTube Channel just before the open of the day (you should subscribe so you are notified):  http://www.youtube.com/user/Nindicators?feature=mhee

Compare this report and the Open Report with your own analysis.

Note: These reports may vary a bit from Nindicator reports as they may under various circumstances use slightly different calculations.

  4 Responses to “Emini Value Area Report for 8/30/2012”

  1. Curious about your naked vpoc at 1422.75, I have it at 1418.75, a slightly wider volume area.

  2. Hi Edward. This level is the same within a tick on the Nindicator calculation and another software I use as well. The particular day that came from was a large range day with multiple nodes. Your software selected another level. There was another high volume node that day at about 1419 but, as I said, multiple computations from different software showed the high volume node that day came in at; 1422.50. One thing I have talked about a lot is that this is not rocket science. So, if you have a wide range day like that, the levels may be less meaningful that they would be coming from a D shaped day like we had today. Hope that helps, Rob

  3. I guess it’s software, but I do get more volume at 1418.75, on that triple D day, which also happens to be a key fib extension off the July breakout level. In any case, a big level IMHO.

  4. It could also be the data feed…..

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6 × = forty two

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